Cox Business Jet & TP Market Index Returns

After a three and a half year retirement from tracking market indices, I believe that it is time for me to bring my Business Jet & Turboprop Market Index Report back to life.

This Index Report first came into being after the World dropped off the proverbial cliff of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, and one of my clients wanted to know when we had hit bottom? My answer to this question was my Market Index Report (I think I actually called it a “Market Condition Report” back in late 2008/early 2009. I stopped tracking, and reporting to my client in December 2012. No we had not hit bottom by them, from an business aircraft value standpoint, but economically many of the indices indicated some improvement, hence my decision to retire this report, at that time.

So here we are two, and a half years later, and Oil is at a historical low, Interest Rates remain in their stables ready to come running back onto their racetrack, but the FED keeps them on lock-down. Gold is low, but predictably it will likely climb again, less bothered by the Oil price, and instead buoyed by the anger that is boiling up in many parts of the World regarding government, and politics in general…Almost a Global version of the Boston Tea Party, in many ways. The Dollar, like the Chinese Yuan is held low to keep GDP numbers up. With all of this, Used Business Aircraft Values still continue to fall.

The number of Business Aircraft in-existence has risen since December 2012, even with RVSM, Stage III Noise, FANS legislation killing some of the dinosaur-jets that were still in service. Fortunately the total number of aircraft available for sale (actively advertised, and truly available for purchase) has decreased. Unfortunately the Percentage for Sale, has gone up since then.

So, now to the ‘New’, and ‘Improved’ Cox Business Jet & TP Market Index, and what changes I have made prior to this, its first reintroduction into public life…

The Average Low Asking Price, Average Effective Percentage Available for Purchase, and the Average Days On Market needed, in my opinion, to be updated, therefore this is what I did:

I added all of the following aircraft to the existing list*

  • TBM850, which there 256 in existence/operation
  • King Air 350i, which there 305 in existence/operation
  • Citation Mustang, which there 461 in existence/operation
  • Beechjet 400A, which there 314 in existence/operation
  • Learjet 45, which there 239 in existence/operation
  • Citation Sovereign, which there 349 in existence/operation
  • Gulfstream G200, which there 245 in existence/operation
  • Falcon 7X, which there 257 in existence/operation
  • Gulfstream V, which there 187 in existence/operation
  • Global Express, which there 145 in existence/operation
  • Gulfstream 550, which there 515 in existence/operation

*The original list consisted of:

  • Pilatus PC12
  • King Air B200
  • CE525 Citationjet
  • Citation Bravo
  • Learjet 60
  • Hawker 800XP
  • Citation Excel
  • Falcon 50EX
  • Challenger 604
  • Gulfstream GIVSP
  • Falcon 900B

All of these aircraft remain on my list, therefore my list of indices aircraft that are averaged for the Market Index, has doubled. Unfortunately my data is now skewed thanks to the jump in Average Asking Price, since three of the added aircraft (Falcon 7X, Gulfstream V, and G550, are all 8-digit pricing aircraft, i.e. above $10M+ each (yes some GV’s  are trading in 8’s, and 9’s.) The graph plot line has also risen thanks to the reduction of aircraft available for sale, as well as a reduction in the days on market, that appear to be across the board.

There is no doubt that after three months of tracking, from today’s date, shall even out the trend line, and then deliver an accurate portrayal of the current state of the used business aircraft market. Please watch this page, and see the data fall in line with me.

Okay, now the graphs:

Low Ask Price 6-28-16

Aircraft For Sale 6-28-16

DOM 6-28-16

Percentage for Sale 6-28-16

Cox Index 6-28-16

Commodities 6-28-16

I will update my report before the end of July.

Bye for now.

 

 

Leave a Reply