There are approximately 70 million people that live in the United Kingdom (England, Scotland, Ireland, and Wales.) On mainland Europe, there are approximately 672 million people.
The United Kingdom is rated by the World Bank, as having the 5th largest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the World (USA is #1, China #2, Japan #3, Germany #4, France #6, Brazil #7, and on…) It is an attractive marketplace, for both Buyers, and Sellers engaged within the Aviation Industry. However, it is expected that the ‘Brexit’ vote, and up-to two-year negotiated exit from the European Union, once Article 50 has been invoked, will hurt the UK’s GDP by as much as 25%.
Furthermore, the reintroduction of Customs Duties on Aviation Trading, like Parts, Components, even Whole Aircraft, will, in my opinion, drastically rein in a lot of Aviation trading, and will have a large impact on Aviation-centric transactions based in/out of the United Kingdom. Many of us see the costs to own, and operate and Aircraft in the UK as being extremely high, when compared to the USA…but I predict that these costs shall go much, much higher once the UK fully exits the EU, two-plus years from now.
Another factor that will be more than just a minor irritation, is that I suspect that any Aircraft flying from the UK into Europe will be pounced on by the Continental Customs folks, who will be looking for proof that all Value Added Tax (VAT) has been paid on the Aircraft. i predict that enforcement will skyrocket now. Thank goodness that the EU’s ‘get rich scheme’, called Carbon Credits, has yet to come into effect.
Unfortunately for our British cousins, three words apply more-so, than ever regarding Aviation: “Pay”, “Pay”, “Pay.” My biggest question, yet unanswered over the ‘Brexit’ vote, is what happens with the Civil Aviation Authorities relationship with the European Aviation Safety Agency? Will the CAA be taking back the reins from EASA, for oversight of British Aviation, or will UK Aviation still remain in Europe?
Bye for now.