My latest offering at Globalair.com
Back in 1991 I was the Vice President and head of sales for an FAA Certified Repair Station that specialized in major modifications and repairs for a variety of aircraft that included the Sabreliner and Falcon. We were a new company that erected its shingle in a highly competitive market. Our timing was good because at about the same time the FAA really jumped on the Ageing Aircraft issue thanks to the Aloha Airlines convertible incident coupled with the clamp down on unapproved parts.
Corrosion was a big money-maker for us, and just like cancer in the human body treated with a scalpel or laser, we filed, sanded and ground aircraft alloy parts and components away until all of the black oxide and associated cracking was gone and the base metal was polished smooth and clean. Next came either the repair or part replacement before everything was repainted. The Sabreliner was naturally a battery from its birth thanks to North American Rockwell’s decision to use stainless steel married to aluminium to in-build added strength without having to go too exotic in the design.
Other than being a dedicated sheet-metal repair company, we made a name by offering a very competitive labour rate. In fact our magazine advertising in the aviation press was centred on this low rate, which at the time-twenty years ago was set at $40 per man-hour. Equivalent shops were at that time charging $55 per man-hour. Today equivalent rates have risen three times that figure and at some shops it is not unusual to pay close to $200 per man-hour for specialist service work.
This trip for me down my memory lane really makes me think about inflation and its impact on the aviation industry. The questions nagging in the back of my mind are: “Have prices risen in-step with the rest of this countries ‘goods and services?’”; and “Where do business aircraft fall into all of this?”
If I apply the simple way of calculating the amount of inflation seen by using my 1991 labour-rate example; I do this by subtracting the old cost per man-hour rate from today’s rate, and then dividing this result by the old rate from 1991 (($120-$55)/$55 X 100 = 118%) I find that the cost of aviation labour over the past 20 years has risen by 118%, or alternatively it has risen by almost 6% every year.
Okay now let’s apply this simple method to a business aircraft. I will pick a machine that I know is still in production after more than 20 years, i.e. the Beechcraft King Air B200. So in 1991 according to the Aircraft Bluebook Price Digest a B200 of that year model sold in a standard equipment configuration ‘New’ for $3,188,800. This same, but considerably updated version, the B200GT sold at the end of 2010 for $5,584,000. Therefore:
(5,584,000 – 3,188,800)/3,188,800 X 100 = 75%, or almost 4% every year.
Let’s try this on three more aircraft so that we can obtain an average number to be applied to the business fleet as a whole. This time I will pick both the Cessna Citation 560, the Falcon 50/50EX and the Gulfstream IV/G450. First the Citation:
In 1991 a standard equipment configuration ‘New’ CE560 was $4,438,800. In late 2009 it was $8,864,000, thus:
(8,864,000 – 4,438,800)/4,438,800 X 100 = 100%, or 5% every year.
In 1991 a standard equipment configuration ‘New’ Falcon 50 was $14,650,000. In late 2007 (the last year that one of these aircraft was built) it was $22,700,000, thus:
(22,700,000 – 14,650,000)/14,650,000 X 100 = 55%, or almost 3% every year.
Lastly, in 1991 a standard equipment configuration ‘New’ GIV was $21,900,000. In late 2010 its later equivalent the G450 was $38,250,000, thus:
(38,250,000 – 21,900,000)/21,900,000 X 100 = 75%, or almost 4% every year.
If we take all resultant percentages for the aircraft examples, and add them all together and then divide by the number of figures added together, we shall arrive at an average (I shall also average the years to arrive at an accurate divisor for annual increase):
(75% + 100% + 55% + 75%)/4 = 76%
(20 years + 19 years + 16 years + 20 years)/4 = 19
76%/19 = 4% per annum.
On average, turbine business aircraft have seen an annual inflation rate applied to their factory ‘new’ prices that equals 4% per annum.
According to the U.S. Government, inflation has averaged about 3% per annum.
Although this is interesting information, what about the value of the U.S. Dollar? How has the buying power/value of this unit of currency also faired over the past twenty years?
So let’s take that venerable King Air B200 and compare what the 1991 price of $3,188,800 in cash is equivalent to in today’s value of the dollar. By searching the internet I found a variety of historical “comparative value of the dollar” calculators and charts. It appears that the 2010 U.S. Dollar is now worth about 0.63 cents compared to the 1991 U.S. Dollar if taken as having a ‘then’ value of 100 cents, therefore the purchase price of a B200 in 1991, if made in 2010 U.S. Dollars would in fact cost $4,368,656. The 2010 price of the B200 at $5,584,000, if paid in 1991 dollars would really only cost $3,517,920 which is only about 10% more.
The dollar has lost 37% of its buying power in the past 20 years.
Since we are all living ‘post GFC’, it is interesting to see how all four aircraft in their 1991 production year-models are now worth today on the free-world used-market, according to AMSTAT Corporation’s database, and the Bluebook.
Somewhere between 1,200,000 to 1,970,000 depending on engine times and condition; let’s call it $1,585,000.
Somewhere between 1,300,000 to 2,100,000 depending on engine times and condition; let’s call it $1,700,000.
Somewhere between 3,700,000 to 4,300,000 depending on engine times and condition; let’s call it $4,000,000.
Somewhere between 7,100,000 to 14,100,000 depending on engine times and condition; let’s call it $10,600,000.
The issue of ‘residual value.’
Okay so we have original purchase prices from 1991, and we also have 2010/11 values of today for the same aircraft, twenty years hence. Let’s analyze these numbers to see what the residual value of each aircraft is compared to its original price, and then lets average this:
The B200 was $3,188,800 and is now $1,585,000; therefore its residual value is about 50% of its original price. If the dollar value is adjusted by 63% (the real buying power of today’s dollar, then the adjusted residual value is about 31%.
The Citation 560 was $4,438,800 and is now $1,700,000; therefore its residual value is about 38% of its original price. If the dollar value is adjusted by 63% (the real buying power of today’s dollar, then the adjusted residual value is about 24%.
The Falcon 50 was $14,650,000 and is now $4,000,000; therefore its residual value is about 27% of its original price. If the dollar value is adjusted by 63% (the real buying power of today’s dollar, then the adjusted residual value is about 17%.
The GIV was $21,900,000 and is now $10,600,000; therefore its residual value is about 48% of its original price. If the dollar value is adjusted by 63% (the real buying power of today’s dollar, then the adjusted residual value is about 30%.
(50% + 38% + 27% + 48%)/4 = 41%
(31% + 24% + 17% + 30%)/4 = 26% Adjusted for the decline in the value of the U.S. Dollar.
On average, over a 20 year period, turbine business aircraft have been seen to retain a residual value of about 41%, or about 26% in real dollars.
The What-If of a ‘Non-GFC Economy’
So let’s imagine that the Global Financial Crisis never took place. Where would these figures stand today if the new paradigm of values had not come into play?
If you scroll back to my March 2009 Globalair.com article titled: “The Not So Great Depression”, you will see that effectively post GFC tipping-point market values have dropped between 40% and 60%. It is absolutely true to say that the ‘Large Cabin’ market is the precursor, by performance today, of an improving outlook. However I want you to imagine just for a moment, what the average residual value percentage could-would have been without GFC, somewhere between 50% and 80%.
What does all of this mean to you?
Business Aviation sees about a 4% per annum inflation rate.
The U.S. Dollar is losing 1.85% of its buying-power/worth every year.
All resale/used aircraft are currently trading somewhere between 40%, to 60% below their ‘historical norm.’
If you have a hankering for a new aircraft and you are a tenacious-tax-tiger, remember that you are able to write 100% off in the first year due to the Bonus Depreciation legislation enacted by the House.
My advice is that you ‘dump’ your old aircraft now, and buy up into a newer aircraft that prior to GFC was probably well and truly out of your price-range. Take the hit on your trade-in while you find great peace of mind in the knowledge that you have a bargain that can only accrue in value compared to its initial purchase price today (baring another GFC of deeper proportions). Pray that Quantative Easing and the Printing Presses of the Federal Reserve Banks don’t continue to devalue the U.S. Dollar.